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The Threat of
Global Warming
The majority of scientists worldwide,
including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National
Academy of Sciences, agrees that emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases are causing the earth’s temperature to rise, affecting
its climate and ecosystems.
Global warming may increase the possibility of “large, abrupt, and
unwelcome regional or global climatic events,” according to a National
Academy of Sciences report published in 2002. Some of these impacts
directly threaten American society and its prosperity, as well as
economies and societies worldwide.
According to the National Academy’s report:
• Rapid climate change could disrupt ecological or economic systems in a
manner that prevents their timely replacement, repair, or adaptation.
• Rapid climate change will probably result in the redistribution – and
possibly in the extinction – of terrestrial and marine species, and have
major effects on ecosystems worldwide.
• Changes in water supplies could result in increased demands for water,
affect agricultural production, and potentially trigger adverse health
effects.
Other uncertain but potentially severe impacts include:
• Unpredictable and extreme climate patterns
• More frequent droughts
• Intensified hurricanes and other storms
• Flooding from rising sea levels
• Disruption of ocean currents
Altered climate patterns could also make the weather in Europe
dramatically colder, and the monsoons fail in South Asia, with economic
and social consequences. Some scientists believe that global warming is
already causing the worldwide death of coral reefs, which are key to the
economies of many tropical nations.
Moreover, in today’s increasingly global economy, impacts on other nations
may have important implications for the United States. For example, the
predicted sharp declines in agricultural productivity in Mexico may lead
to increased levels of illegal immigration. Projected dramatic increases
in Russian and Canadian wheat production may cause intensified competition
for U. S. grain exporters.
Greenhouse gas emissions are a worldwide problem. The United States, with
almost five percent of the world’s population, is the largest single
source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 21 percent of total
global output. Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are steadily
rising, and projected to increase at an average rate of 1.5 percent per
year between now and 2020, according to the Department of Energy’s Annual
Energy Outlook 2002.
Carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing even more rapidly in the
developing countries, where emissions are projected to exceed those of the
industrialized countries by 2020, according to the Department of Energy’s
International Energy Outlook 2002. Globally, carbon dioxide emissions are
projected to increase by 2.3 percent per year, increasing 50 percent
between 1999 and 2020.
Yet the United States has neither a domestic nor a diplomatic policy for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the earth’s climate. Ten
years of experience, both at home and abroad, show that voluntarism has
been entirely ineffectual in restraining greenhouse gas emissions growth.
The U.S. climate policy debate remains dominated by polarizing proposals
that are either, at one extreme, more symbolic than real, or, at the other
extreme, too expensive to command mainstream support.
The United States must develop a comprehensive, intellectually consistent,
and politically centrist climate policy. An effective U.S. climate policy
must include both a U.S. domestic greenhouse gas emissions control policy,
and U.S. policy leadership for slowing emissions growth in developing
countries. Although many individual components of such a policy have been
proposed, all the various pieces must now be assembled into a unified
whole - a climate change policy that will demonstrate the United States’
leadership domestically and globally.
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