Climate Change Factoid - Patterns of Growth - When Will it Happen? (#7 of a Series)

If it's coming, everyone wants to know when. "It"temperature graph have established an angle of
couldn't mean climate change itself, because that'sincrease. By placing a straight edge along the tops of
been here and growing for nearly five decades now.those lines, I was able to approximate the angle and
I think "it" must mean some sort of plateau in theextended the line well past the last year shown on
development of climate change where everythingthe graph. The exercise tells me that if the increase
starts to go to "hell in a handbasket." Whatever itin annual temperature continues to grow at the same
means, no one really knows the answer because thisrate it has for the past twenty years the increase to
is our first stroll down this surreal path but, somedate (so far 0.6ºC) will double to 1.2ºC
educated guesswork might just provide some usefulby 2026. What that might mean in terms of actual
insight.consequences isn't as easy. Tornadoes increased
The "It" thing seems like it has a lot to do with howfrom 7,000 per decade to over 21,000 as that
we have organized ourselves into a society. I say0.6ºC increase was developing. Does that
that because the interwoven connections of amean that doubling the temperature will also double
globalized economy and culture makes it morethat result to 42,000 tornadoes? Could be.
susceptible to disruption from extreme weatherIs 0.6ºC of additional heat a lot? Yes, it is. It is
events. An extreme weather event might wreakso much, that reaching that figure guarantees that all
devastating damage wherever it strikes, but thatof the ice on the planet is going to melt and short of
damage will probably prove minor when compared tohuge, planetary scope engineering programs that
what's going to happen when the people in areascould "scrub" the extra CO2 from the atmosphere
getting repeatedly hammered by extreme weatherand sequester it below ground, there's nothing we
events, give up their last bit of hope that climatecan do about it but wait for it to happen. Are you
change can be stopped and begin to migrate tofeeling skeptical, I understand, but consider the
other parts of the country, by the millions. The placesignificance of something that has already happened:
they leave will cease to function for want of theirThe temperature graph I have been using to guess
presence and their destination cities will bethe future tells us for sure that its been getting
overwhelmed by their numbers. The Gulf Coast withhotter for nearly two decades now (2009) - that's
its hurricanes (87 million) or, the Southwest with itslong enough to be called a trend. Over the same
drought and wildfires (28 million) look very susceptibleperiod of time, the total amount of ice on earth has
to this scenario.been declining, since the annual snowfall at the polar
No one really knows when the really hurtful parts ofcaps and glaciers has been insufficient to replace the
climate change will present themselves. The scientificice that has melted during that year. That's also a
community continuously modifies its predictions, withtrend. The trend is more heat - less ice. Add to that,
the dates always getting nearer as they expressthe fact that the extra CO2 we produce, which is
surprise at how much faster things have beencausing this trend, will remain in the atmosphere for
developing than they had originally thought theythousands of years and you have a trend that will
would. To do my crystal ball estimates I have used acontinue, indefinitely, well past the time when the last
very simplistic approach. The tops of the lines theyice cube melts.
have been adding each year to the global