| World economies are facing a triple threat. Oil | | | | carbon dioxide will be added to the atmosphere from |
| reserves will be close to depletion by the year 2050. | | | | the accelerating burning of coal and natural gas. |
| Damages from climate changes caused by escalating | | | | There is a direct connection between carbon dioxide |
| greenhouse gas emissions will become substantial. | | | | accumulation and global temperature increase. During |
| Rising transportation and food costs will slow | | | | the last 30 years, this correlation amounted to |
| economic growth rates. The results will lead to | | | | approximately 2 degree C per 100 ppm carbon |
| worldwide economic stagnation without hope for | | | | dioxide. If we accept this correlation as valid, we are |
| escape or reversal. | | | | faced with some very ugly numbers. During the next |
| Future generations will have to pay dearly for the | | | | 46 years, we will increase the atmospheric carbon |
| failure of previous national governments to eliminate | | | | dioxide concentration by at least 200 ppm. In turn, |
| carbon dioxide emissions and to change world energy | | | | this increase will result in a rise of global temperatures |
| supplies. Our dependence on fossil fuels must be | | | | by 4 degree C. This means that by the year 2050, |
| terminated completely within the next three to four | | | | the world will have warmed by 5 degree C! This |
| decades or the world will self-destruct. | | | | figure is more realistic than recent IPCC forecasts. |
| Let's us look at the facts that lead to these | | | | The robust growth of world economies and the |
| frightening conclusions. | | | | exceptionally fast increase in energy consumption in |
| Statements about petroleum reserves have been | | | | China and India will result in much higher energy |
| dubious in the past. In 2007, lowest figures are in the | | | | consumption and in a much faster growth of |
| range of 1 to 1.3 trillion barrels. A figure as high as 2.3 | | | | greenhouse gases than originally predicted. Two other |
| trillion barrels has been proposed but will not find | | | | accelerating factors are the failure of the Kyoto |
| many supporters, not even in the oil industry. | | | | Protocol to perceptibly reduce greenhouse gas |
| At the 2006 rate of oil consumption of 31 billion | | | | emissions and the decision of the USA to delay any |
| barrels per year, these reserves could last 32 to 74 | | | | countermeasures. |
| years. Such figures are often quoted but are much | | | | In view of actual, past developments and by |
| too high because annual oil consumption is continually | | | | accepting a realistic future outlook, we must draw |
| rising. The growth rate is approximately 2% per year. | | | | several, inescapable conclusions. The increase of |
| Projecting steady growth to the year 2050, the | | | | global temperatures on Earth will become faster, |
| actual consumption is going to be 60% higher. This | | | | transportation of commodities and goods will get |
| increases the average annual consumption rate | | | | extremely costly, and the effects of global warming |
| between 2006 and 2050 to a very realistic 50 billion | | | | on climate change will continue to become more |
| barrels per year. Time to depletion is reduced to a | | | | numerous and more destructive. This confluence of |
| time span of 20 years to 46 years. Most likely, | | | | future developments will lead inescapably to a major |
| neither figure is correct. However, it is reasonable to | | | | threat to all world economies. |
| assume that a figure between 20 years and 46 | | | | Once world economies begin to contract and |
| years will be most likely. | | | | collapse, national economies cannot marshal any |
| Combusting 1 to 2.3 trillion barrels of oil will add a | | | | longer the necessary resources that could have |
| huge amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. | | | | saved the world. Installation of effective |
| The amount is 0.42 to 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide. | | | | countermeasures will require a minimum time of thirty |
| This huge mass will increase the carbon dioxide | | | | years. Once economies contract, there will be no |
| content in the atmosphere by 55 to 125 ppm. Only a | | | | resources and no time left to implement solutions. |
| small percentage of this additional mass will be | | | | The world will have lost the ability to install any of |
| absorbed in the oceans. Most of it will lead to a | | | | the promising, renewable technologies, which are able |
| substantial increase in the atmosphere's carbon | | | | to produce electricity and liquid transportation fuels |
| dioxide content. | | | | without the emission of any destructive greenhouse |
| During the same time, an even larger amount of | | | | gases. The world as we know it will cease to exist. |